January 26, 2021
 
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DTN Midday Livestock Comments          01/25 12:10

   Back to Securing Profits Monday Morning

   There was some concern that Monday could have been pressured to trade lower, 
but thus far the livestock contracts are faring well and managing to secure 
higher prices.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

   General Comments

   The livestock complex is rolling into Monday's trade far more optimistic 
than many anticipated. The bearish resistance that loomed over the nearby 
contracts in the live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hog markets has dissipated 
and is now allowing for the markets to trade mostly higher which continues to 
reignite the supportive nature that building in the entire livestock complex. 
March corn is up 14 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $11.50. 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 207.33 points and NASDAQ is down 34.14 
points.

   LIVE CATTLE

   After last week's somewhat disappointing cash cattle trade, opportunity 
lingers for this week's cash cattle trade. As packers continue to reap the 
benefits of a strong boxed beef market, feedlots should be keenly aware that 
they have an opportunity to price their cattle higher and should be willing to 
wait until later in the week if need be. The live cattle contracts are back to 
securing higher prices Monday morning as the complex continues to be supported 
even after a bearish Cattle on Feed Report from Friday. February live cattle 
are down $0.07 at $116.65, April live cattle are up $0.50 at $123.02 and June 
live cattle are up $0.22 at $119.02. Showlists this week are larger in Texas 
but lighter in Kansas, Nebraska and Colorado.

   Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 88,895 head. Of that 64,836 
head are committed for delivery in the next two weeks while the remaining 
24,059 head are scheduled for delivery in the following 15 to 30 days.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.96 ($225.78) and select up $2.03 
($215.37) with a movement of 46 loads (25.14 loads of choice, 10.46 loads of 
select, 4.81 loads of trim and 5.56 loads of ground beef).

   FEEDER CATTLE

   A modest Monday morning rally will gladly be taken seeing that the feeder 
cattle complex was somewhat worried about what Monday's trade will pan out to 
be. With corn prices back on the gain, the feeder cattle contracts don't seem 
overly concerned as the support that's built the complex higher over the last 
10 days remains strong from both technical and fundamental indicators. Now if 
the corn market regains a substantial footing the contracts may begin to be 
pressured but at this point the contracts seems unscathed. March feeders are up 
$0.17 at $144.32, April feeders are up $0.37 at $146.50 and May feeders are up 
$0.57 at $147.60.

   LEAN HOGS

   The lean hog contracts weren't lackadaisical last Friday and made sure to 
close sharply higher along with the cattle contracts. Upon Monday's arrival, 
the lean hog contracts have had no problem continuing a modest rally and will 
most likely be able to do so as resistance thresholds aren't a looming concern 
at the time being. Pork cutout values are down slightly but the cash market 
continues to show support for the contracts upward progression and continue to 
show that packers are interested in keeping vigorous their slaughter speed 
elevated. 

   The projected lean hog index for 1/22/2021 is up $0.33 at $65.88 and the 
actual index for 1/21/2021 is up $0.15 at $65.55. Hog prices are higher on the 
National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.16 with a weighted average of $55.72, 
ranging from $48.00 to $55.95 on 3,448 head and a five-day rolling average of 
$55.59. Pork cutouts total 174.94 loads with 157.83 loads of pork cuts and 
17.11 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.37, $82.46.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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